Low Winds In America Cut Wind Power Output
In spite of a rapid pace in new wind farm construction wind electric power output dropped 4.2% in the first 5 months of 2015 as compared to a year earlier. The drop was most severe in the West. In the future we won't just have drought years and hot or cold years. We will also have low wind years. Wind drought? We need a term for it. Imagining a commentator in the year 2035: "The western United States is in the 5th year of a wind drought that has seen rationing of power in many areas and a flurry of solar panel installations".... (Source: FuturePundit)
Source: FuturePundit - September 12, 2015 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
Some Jobs Headed For Extinction
The 5 jobs look set for the biggest drops "Fallers" who cut down trees are headed for a 43% drop in employment by 2022. The 8,000 people who are still left running movie theater projectors ("motion picture projectionist") are, unsurprisingly, in a quickly shrinking occupation. Of course movies are going digital and automated. Here are some more jobs that will be replaced by robots. Some jobs are shrinking because the technology already exists and capital investments are gradually sweeping thru and replacing old equipment with new equipment that does not need humans. But some other occupations are kinda like in a waiting ro...
Source: FuturePundit - September 7, 2015 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
Radiation Shielding Metal Foams Have Space Exploration Uses
Metal foams reduce the weight needed for radiation shielding. Research from North Carolina State University shows that lightweight composite metal foams are effective at blocking X-rays, gamma rays and neutron radiation, and are capable of absorbing the energy of high impact collisions. The finding means the metal foams hold promise for use in nuclear safety, space exploration and medical technology applications. A human trip to Mars poses a radiation brain damage threat. So lighter materials to protect against radiation would make a Mars trip more feasible, though still not sensible. I still think we should not go to Mars...
Source: FuturePundit - September 6, 2015 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
Autonomous Cars, Repair Shops, Robotic Repair
If your autonomous vehicle has a problem that does not impair its safe operation then it can drive itself to a repair shop without you. Then you can get an autonomous taxi (or autonomous rental if needed) to take you to work while your car is getting fixed. If your car can't make it to the repair shop then an autonomous towing flatbed truck could show up and, perhaps with some help from you, take your car away. Then once the car is fixed it can drive itself back to you. Something changes in this scenario that might not be immediately obvious: the value of having repair shops near your home goes down. Your own time is not s...
Source: FuturePundit - September 5, 2015 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
Crime Surge In American Cities
Remember the optimism in some circles a few years ago about how the crime rate will just keep dropping? See: Murder Rates Rising Sharply in Many U.S. Cities Call cops racist and prosecute them for defending themselves and really quickly they become so timid that criminal elements feel quite emboldened. Thugocracy gets out of hand and the aggressive thugs become more eager to pull a gun and start shooting.... (Source: FuturePundit)
Source: FuturePundit - September 4, 2015 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
Why Human Population Might Explode
A number of advances in computer and biotechnologies will boost fertility. They might together cause a human population explosion that eventually returns humanity to the Malthusian Trap conditions that prevailed for most of humanity's existence. Technological advances will increase the number of years available for reproduction, lower the work of raising babies, lower the risks, and increase the benefits to parent from having kids. Consider how each of these factors will raise fertility and population levels. Rejuvenation therapies Dead people do not make babies. Old women do not make babies. Therapies that extend the fert...
Source: FuturePundit - August 30, 2015 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
Use Autonomous Car Computers When They Are Parked
Electric vehicle batteries will some day be used for load-balancing the electric power grid. While parked the EVs can feed electric power into a household or the grid while demand spikes. Machine learning systems will be able to predict future driving patterns and let a battery drain partially when the electric power is needed elsewhere. But picture the computing power in the parked autonomous EV. Seems like a waste when cars are parked for most of the day. Each autonomous car will probably have more computing power than a tricked out desktop computer of today. Even fleet cars will be idle most of the day and night because...
Source: FuturePundit - August 23, 2015 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
Growing Input-Outcome Disparity In Biomedical Research
Computers, a many orders of magnitude decline in DNA sequencing costs, big advances in knowledge of how genes, cells, and organisms function, and the growth in microfluidics technology have not increased the rate at which new therapies come to market. The general public funds the vast majority of biomedical research and is also the major intended beneficiary of biomedical breakthroughs. We show that increasing research investments, resulting in an increasing knowledge base, have not yielded comparative gains in certain health outcomes over the last five decades. We demonstrate that monitoring scientific inputs, outputs, an...
Source: FuturePundit - August 18, 2015 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
Are Autonomous Vehicles A Threat To Human Agency?
Norman Lewis attempts to argue that misanthropy is at the base of the push for driverless cars. The quest for robotic cars is underwritten by a suspicion of humanity. Suspicion? A suspicion is where you think something is true but you aren't certain. By contrast, I'm quite certain that drunk drivers kill people every day. I am also quite certain that there are people watching their cell phone messages when they ought to be watching the road. I know this because I've seen them doing it. Recently I was in a left turn lane at the light and while the left turn light stayed red the main light turned green. The guy next to me st...
Source: FuturePundit - August 17, 2015 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
iRobot Gets Regulatory Approval On Robotic Lawn Mower Tech
Robot maker iRobot, best known for its robotic vacuum cleaners, has won US FCC regulatory approval for a communications technology it is considering for control of robotic lawn mowers. The company intends to use ways to cut grass that are much less risky than the high speed big blades used in conventional lawn mowers. The iRobot company has not yet committed to releasing a robotic lawn mower. But doing some web searches on robotic lawn mowers I am surprised at how many robotic lawn mower products are already on the market. John Deere is already selling robotic lawn mowers in Europe. Check out the John Deere Tango E5 roboti...
Source: FuturePundit - August 16, 2015 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
John Deere Is Biggest Seller Of Autonomous Vehicles
John Deere tractors are still supposed to have a human behind the wheel while they drive themselves. The tractors are able to plow and plant much more efficiently when they drive themselves. Case IH and other competitors also sell self-driving tractors. 20 years from now even fields of vegetables will be planted and harvested totally by machines. John Deere is also among the makers of autonomous lawn mowers. You can watch the future happening on farm fields while you wait to see it come to highways.... (Source: FuturePundit)
Source: FuturePundit - August 16, 2015 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
Autonomous Operation Coming For Trucks First?
Full autonomous operation of commercial vehicles is seen as still over a decade away. But commercial fleet operators are rolling out lots of driver-assist technologies that take over a rising portion of driving tasks. the move to autonomy in commercial and industrial vehicles is far ahead of the autonomous systems offered on most passenger vehicles. The automated assist technologies are cutting accident rates and improving fuel efficiency. Full autonomous driving will also slash labor costs. This might well happen first with long haul trucks because highways are an easier autonomous driving challenge than local streets. Al...
Source: FuturePundit - August 8, 2015 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
Entertainment Systems, Keyless Fobs Making Car Stealing Easier
Keyless entry to cars is opening up a new way to steal cars. Thousands of cars were stolen in London alone last year with keyless entry hacks. Autonomous operation will add another layer of risk. Terrorist groups might want to direct a person's car to the point of ambush or kidnapping If you can hack into the car to tell it where to go and also to simultaneously prevent updates in destination from within the passenger compartment then the autonomous vehicle will go where you want it to go. We need encrypted keyless entry messages that are time-based. Plus, the encryption key info should not be stored on a ROM but rather in...
Source: FuturePundit - August 4, 2015 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
Labor-Saving Robots To Cause Mass Unemployment?
Check out this PBS NewsHour report Do labor-saving robots spell doom for American workers? Some people think so. Retail is one of the sectors still employing a lot of lower skilled workers. But robots that lead you to what you are looking for, robots that have internet connections to store chain employees in distant places, and robots that stock the shelves and polish the floors are just a matter of time. In some cases, in just a matter of a pretty short period of time. Silicon Valley start-ups are developing hotel concierge service robots too. I picture a future where if you go to the store a robot will greet you at the d...
Source: FuturePundit - August 4, 2015 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
Self-Driving Cars To Cause Car Insurance Industry Revenue Plunge
In 15 years average premiums could be less than half of today's car insurance costs. That is even more dramatic than it sounds because 15 years from now some of the cars on the road will be pre-autonomous. Just how far autonomous vehicles cut accident rates will depend on how many people insist up controlling their cars at least some of the time. It seems likely that at some point in the future pedestrians, bicyclists, and motorcyclists will be much bigger causes of accidents than cars. Insurance rates on autonomous vehicles will be set by such factors as how many non-autonomous vehicles operate in the area where each pers...
Source: FuturePundit - August 2, 2015 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
