About California Autonomous Vehicle Regulations
California will require a licensed driver and steering controls. That knocks out autonomous taxis. No way for the taxi to drive itself to pick up a passenger. It also eliminates the benefit for the blind and old folks who've lost too much coordination and decision-making skills. But if you are eagerly waiting autonomous vehicles do not despair. What I expect to happen: Some jurisdictions will allow fully autonomous vehicles. In those jurisdictions death rates will plummet. People will sing the praises of cheap autonomous taxis. The old and blind will get a lot of attention in the press when they describe their new freedom ...
Source: FuturePundit - December 17, 2015 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
Wild Species Genetic Alteration: Seems Inevitable
A writer calls for human intervention in nature to reduce animal suffering. My own beliefs and ethics do not drive me in any way toward this point of view. But when the cost of doing something goes down more people consider doing it. I think this might be the case for managing wilderness areas and all the flora and fauna in them. Imagine humans do not get wiped out by AI robots or nanodevices. We will (or some of us will) eventually gain the ability to intervene in nature with a high level of nuance and fine grained control over wide ranges. How? Little robots, mini-UAVs, insects genetically engineered to deliver viruses t...
Source: FuturePundit - December 16, 2015 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
Cheap LIDAR coming for driverless cars
Silicon Valley startup Quanergy and Delphi Systems are going to sell a LIDAR sensor system for autonomous vehicles for less than $1k. Game changer. We will see fully autonomous vehicles on sale in the 2020s. Car accident rates and death rates will plummet along with insurance premiums and taxi ride fares. People will travel more because it will become easier and less stressful. We will also see the rise of (cheaper) delivery services where you have to come out to the (driverless) vehicle to retrieve your goods. Will people commute greater distances when they no longer have to drive? Or will they live in cities more once ca...
Source: FuturePundit - December 12, 2015 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
Cancer Risk and US FDA As Obstacle For Cancer Cures
A review of The Death Of Cancer by long time cancer researcher Vincent T. DeVita includes an excerpt where he expresses his frustration with the obstructing role that the US Food and Drug Administration plays in the development of cancer treatments. Id like to be able to say that as cancer drugs have become increasingly more complex and sophisticated, the F.D.A. has as well. But it has not. In fact, he writes, the rate-limiting step in eradicating cancer today is not the science but the regulatory environment we work in. Think about it. Want to die of cancer? Or want a cure if you get cancer? You have about a 1 i...
Source: FuturePundit - December 5, 2015 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
Moore's Law CPU Power Doubling Rate Slowing
Making computer circuits smaller is essential for making them faster and more powerful. But the size of conducting lines in integrated circuits has gotten so small (14 nanometer in Intel's most advanced wafer fabs) that it is getting much harder to shrink their sizes smaller. Therefore Intel says the rate at which computer power is doubling has slowed to a 2.5 year period. This matters a great deal for the rate of economic growth. Each doubling in computer power enables more uses of computers to boost productivity in more ways. This slow down in the rate of doubling will slow the rate of productivity increases. Eventually ...
Source: FuturePundit - December 1, 2015 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
Gene Therapies to have 6 and 7 figure price tags
Early gene therapies will come with serious sticker shock. Half a million dollars for one, 4 to 6 million dollars for another. On the bright side, after a 15+ year delay due to safety concerns it looks like they are really coming this time. My advice: save a lot of money for your old age to be able to buy expensive optional therapies. Wondering whether you should go to a high work, high pay, big city, bright lights career trajectory? Yup. It might just save your life. Medical costs for treating cancer were really low in the 1950s because most of the time all the doctor could do is tell you that you are going to check out o...
Source: FuturePundit - November 23, 2015 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
Last Antibiotic Falls To Resistance Mutation In China
A bacterial strain in China has now developed a resistance mutation to Colistin, the last antibiotic without a known bacterial mutation for resistance. Antibiotic use in animal feed is seen as a likely cause of this new mutation. The human race has been very foolish for many decades in its overuse of antibiotics both in humans and in animal feed. Some of us are going to die as a result. Some already have. Surgery is becoming riskier due to chance of infection. Hospital visits for other types of treatment are becoming riskier as well. So antibiotics resistance is reducing the general effectiveness of the health care. We nee...
Source: FuturePundit - November 22, 2015 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
American Population Not Really Shifting To Cities?
This is counter-narrative: More millennials are moving out of cities than into them. That's true for a large assortment of demographic slices in America: Indeed, for all the talk of the rebirth of American cities, the draw of the suburbs remains powerful. Across all ages, races, incomes and education groups, more Americans are still moving out of cities than in. (Urban populations are still growing, but because of births and immigration, not internal migration.) So why does the press paint a misleading picture? Educated people are shifting more toward cities (partially contradicting the first article I think). My guess is ...
Source: FuturePundit - November 22, 2015 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
Anti-Alzheimer's Drug Slows General Mouse Aging
Anti-plaque drugs did not work to block Alzheimer's disease development. So Salk Institute researchers decided to screen for drugs that reduce aging. They found a drug that seems slow the aging process in mice. LA JOLLA--Salk Institute researchers have found that an experimental drug candidate aimed at combating Alzheimer's disease has a host of unexpected anti-aging effects in animals. ... When these mice were treated with J147, they had better memory and cognition, healthier blood vessels in the brain and other improved physiological features, as detailed November 12, 2015 in the journal Aging. The process of aging cause...
Source: FuturePundit - November 14, 2015 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
Cleveland Clinic To Do Uterus Transplants
Occasionally the scientific future comes sooner than I expected. This is one of those times. We are within a few months of the first attempts at uterus transplants. What's surprising to me: The transplant recipients will use immuno-suppressive (anti-rejection) drugs to retain their uteruses only long enough to make babies. Then their uteruses will be removed in order to enable the end of the use of anti-rejection drugs. This seems potentially harmful to fetuses. Will the anti-rejection drugs alter fetal development?... (Source: FuturePundit)
Source: FuturePundit - November 13, 2015 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
Sharp Drop In DNA Sequencing Prices In 2015
The cost of sequencing a human genome has taken a sharp dive in 2015. Getting close to $1000. You will notice the rate of change has varied. The decline sped up sharply in 2008, falling one and a half orders of magnitude in a single year. As measured logarithmically 2008 was the year of sharpest price decline. The rate of decline in 2012, 2013, and 2014 was pretty slow. I'm happy to see the decline has sped up again. What is the current price of full genome sequencing? That depends. A genome normally gets sequenced multiple times because a single pass through it will have errors. 30x times is considered medical grade and c...
Source: FuturePundit - November 2, 2015 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
Death Rate Decline In USA Flattens
In the last few years the long term decline in death rates has flattened out. The speculation is that this is a delayed effect of the rise in obesity. What's interesting: the death rates from stroke and heart disease have declined faster than the death rate from cancer. Well, cancer is a much harder problem to solve. So as cancer becomes a larger fraction of total deaths it becomes harder to increase life expectancy. Obesity is probably an easier problem to solve than cancer. Eventually drugs that suppress appetite will be found. When will we have cures for most of the currently fatal cancers?... (Source: FuturePundit)
Source: FuturePundit - November 1, 2015 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
Tesla Autopilot Learning To Drive Better
All the data flowing back to Tesla from cars driving themselves in autopilot mode on freeways is being used to do better machine learning model training. All this machine learning isimproving the performance of the cars in autopilot mode. Watch Autopilot react fast to prevent an accident when an idiot makes a fast turn in front of a Tesla driven by Jon Hall: A news story about this incident with comments from Jon Hall. Tesla Autopilot is not able to always control the car. It can suddenly indicate to a driver that the driver needs to take over. Elon Musk says Tesla currently describes the Autopilot feature as a beta. So if...
Source: FuturePundit - October 31, 2015 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
Gene Therapy Treats Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy Dogs
Dogs lead the way. Due to its size, it is impossible to deliver the entire gene with a gene therapy vector, which is the vehicle that carries the therapeutic gene to the correct site in the body, Duan said. Through previous research, we were able to develop a miniature version of this gene called a microgene. This minimized dystrophin protected all muscles in the body of diseased mice. However, it took the team more than 10 years to develop a strategy that can safely send the micro-dystrophin to every muscle in a dog that is afflicted by the disease. The dog has a body size similar to that of an affected boy. Succe...
Source: FuturePundit - October 31, 2015 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
Internet Freedom On Decline For 5th Straight Year
Progress is not inevitable: Content removals increased: Authorities in 42 of the 65 countries assessed required private companies or internet users to restrict or delete web content dealing with political, religious, or social issues, up from 37 the previous year. Arrests and intimidation escalated: Authorities in 40 of 65 countries imprisoned people for sharing information concerning politics, religion or society through digital networks. Surveillance laws and technologies multiplied: Governments in 14 of 65 countries passed new laws to increase surveillance since June 2014 and many more upgraded their surveillance equipm...
Source: FuturePundit - October 31, 2015 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
