Andy Grove's Passing And Job Growth
A piece in the New York Times Andy Grove's Warning To Silicon Valley points to Groves's essay from 2010: How America Can Create Jobs. Groves, who served as Intel CEO for many years, saw a big problem in the attitudes in American business toward manufacturing. He saw the shift of factories abroad as robbing the United States of much needed expertise and competitive advantage. This downgrading of the importance of manufacturing has fallen most heavily on the less intellectually able. As I've pointed out previously, the employment:population ratio spans over 29 percentage points between high school drop-outs and those with at...
Source: FuturePundit - March 26, 2016 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
Carls Jr CEO Wonders If People Ready To Buy From Robot
Are you ready to deal with a computer interface to order a burger and fries? The online survey at the MarketWatch site has 73% of the readers saying yes. The numbers vary quite a bit by state with Oregon having only 45% in favor of skipping the human order takers but 77% in Virginia in favor. The age 18-24 year old people are most in favor followed by 25-34. This could be rolled out first in high volume restaurants with both human and computer order taking. Throw in a downloadable app so that people can order while en route. People will opt for the fast way whenever there is a line to talk to a human worker. Using tablet i...
Source: FuturePundit - March 21, 2016 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
Productivity Growth Slow Down Is Real
Tyler Cowen reviews the latest research: Silicon Valley Has Not Saved Us From A Productivity Slowdown. Seems persuasive to me. But then I already believed the argument. Why I already believed the argument: An opposing viewpoint is that the benefits from computers are underappreciated due to quality and convenience improvements that do not get captured in productivity measures. But that opposing viewpoint does not explain why the computer revolution hasn't just boosted productivity growth even higher. So why wouldn't the older forms of innovation for productivity growth also continue while the computer innovations got put o...
Source: FuturePundit - March 6, 2016 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
Lower Paid Jobs At Greater Risk Of Automation
See: The robots are coming for jobs that pay $20 an hour or less, White House finds. The probability of your job getting automated is higher if you get paid less. This might seem counter-intuitive since the cost of capital to replace your labor has to be much lower if your labor isn't worth much in the first place. But some lower paid tasks are simpler (at least in some respects) and therefore easier to automate. It used to be that robots couldn't do the image processing and coordinated moves required to replace manual laborers in many tasks (e.g. picking fruit from trees). But that's changing. If you are getting paid poor...
Source: FuturePundit - February 23, 2016 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
Gig Work Not Becoming Main Income Source For Most Giggers
Interesting article: Your Uber Driver Probably Has Another Job. Quick response on-demand lower skill jobs are a lot easier to sell thru an online broker (e.g. Uber) because there isn't a need to do complex matching of workers and bidders for services. The more complex the skill the more likely that the screening process to choose a suitable worker will take a lot of time. I realize that some people bid on small software development jobs. But people I know who've done it found the flow of work was uneven and managing relationships with customers fairly time consuming and frustrating. Go ahead and pop up in the comments tell...
Source: FuturePundit - February 20, 2016 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
Why Nokia Lost To Apple
Read this: Who Killed Nokia? Nokia Did. Honesty is incredibly valuable in a large organization. You can't make good decisions without accurate information. If the upper reaches of the organization put fear into their middle managers and scream at them (read the article above) then the middle managers will not pass up the information that the top needs for decision making. Failure will ensue. What else is important? Competence at the top in relevant subjects. If, say, your top management does not understand software development and software development suddenly becomes the most critical competency of the organization then y...
Source: FuturePundit - February 13, 2016 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
Does It Matter Whether Productivity Growth Stalls?
The debate on whether we've eaten all the low-hanging fruit of technological innovation shows no sign of ending any time soon. While I've got opinions on this subject it occurs to me that if you want to look at the future and ponder what's important then rising labor productivity isn't the most important thing to think about. What I want out of the future that I think will be possible some time in the 21 century: Radically better health. This is by far the biggest. Suppose I offer you a choice between two futures and you could get one or the other. The first one is one where productivity and living standards go up about 3%...
Source: FuturePundit - January 31, 2016 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
Zika Virus, Microcephaly Risk, New Vaccines, Mosquito Extinction
Estimates in the press claim 3000-4000 microcephaly babies have been born in Brazil alone due to Zika virus infections in women while pregnant. Maybe. You might be surprised to learn that the Zika-microcephaly link has not yet been proven. Here are rough calculations on whether the threat is real. The scientific jury is still out. Do not panic. Suppose the threat is real. A BBC story puts a vaccine a decade away: Zika virus: US scientists say vaccine '10 years away' But a Reuters story has Inovio Pharmaceuticals ready to start testing an emergency vaccine in several months for use before year's end. Faced with the prospect...
Source: FuturePundit - January 30, 2016 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
Garlic Extract Cuts Soft Plaque In Arteries
Got high blood pressure and obesity? Garlic might cut your risk of a heart attack. LOS ANGELES - The supplement Aged Garlic Extract can reverse the buildup of deadly plaque in arteries and help prevent the progression of heart disease, according to a new study scheduled for publication in the Journal of Nutrition. The research, conducted at LA BioMed, found a reduction in the amount of low-attenuation plaque, or "soft plaque," in the arteries of patients with metabolic syndrome who took Aged Garlic Extract. Metabolic syndrome is characterized by obesity, hypertension and other cardiac risk factors. The research was funded ...
Source: FuturePundit - January 22, 2016 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
Most Life That Evolved On Other Planets Died Off Long Ago
If life on a planet does not evolve fast enough it doesn't get powerful enough before natural changes in climate wipe it out. Australian researchers present the Gaian Bottleneck hypothesis: "The mystery of why we haven't yet found signs of aliens may have less to do with the likelihood of the origin of life or intelligence and have more to do with the rarity of the rapid emergence of biological regulation of feedback cycles on planetary surfaces," he said. Wet, rocky planets, with the ingredients and energy sources required for life seem to be ubiquitous, however, as physicist Enrico Fermi pointed out in 1950, no signs of ...
Source: FuturePundit - January 21, 2016 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
Keyless Entry, Autonomous Cars, Predicted Life
Keyless door access control systems are part of a wider movement of computers acting for us. If a computer can detect it is you approaching your own home it can not only unlock your door but also, with additional actuators, open it. The same can be done with cars. You walk up to it in the morning on a work day and the door pops open, you get in, it tells you it is taking you to work, and without even a response on your part it pulls out of your driveway and turns toward work. Computer prediction models will act in your life to cook your food in advance of your asking, start the water running on your shower,... (Source: FuturePundit)
Source: FuturePundit - January 19, 2016 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
From Holocene To Anthropocene Epoch
Humans are creating a whole new epoch in Earth history. Click thru and read the ways humans are altering the planet. This isn't about CO2 emissions. For instance, we've created large quantities of synthetic materials and spewed them all over. Consider the Great Pacific Garbage Patch (aka Pacific trash vortex) in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre in the Pacific ocean. Large quantities of floating trash, especially plastics. The plastics are not biodegradable, though they photodegrade. Industrialization has also expanded the human capacity to drive species to extinction. We've created a far larger land footprint for our str...
Source: FuturePundit - January 11, 2016 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
Gene Editing Improves Mice With Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy
Duke researchers overcame a number of problems to deliver CRISPR-Cas9 genetic editing machinery into the muscle cells of living mice and treat a genetic disease. Another approach, which involves taking CRISPR directly to the affected tissues through gene therapy techniques, also faces challenges, particularly with delivery. In the new study, Duke University researchers overcame several of these obstacles by using a non-pathogenic carrier called adeno-associated virus, or AAV, to deliver the gene-editing system. Since Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy kills by a person's teens or twenties the high risk of in-place genetic editing...
Source: FuturePundit - January 1, 2016 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
Two Clusters Of Genes Linked To Human Intelligence
Clusters of genes found that influence cognitive function: Scientists from Imperial College London have identified for the first time two clusters of genes linked to human intelligence. Called M1 and M3, these so-called gene networks appear to influence cognitive function which includes memory, attention, processing speed and reasoning. Crucially, the scientists have discovered that these two networks which each contain hundreds of genes are likely to be under the control of master regulator switches. The researchers are now keen to identify these switches and explore whether it might be feasible to manipulate the...
Source: FuturePundit - December 26, 2015 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
We Are Still Not In The Space Age
If it meets its design goal the SpaceX Falcon 9 will cost $250 per lb to put into low Earth orbit (LEO). That is about a tenth of the price of competing alternatives. Suppose Elon Musk succeeds in getting the price done that far. Suppose he goes even farther and hits $100 per pound. Will we be in the space age yet? Nope. Why not? Well, compare to traveling around here on Earth by jet. Suppose you get a $2000 flight to somewhere distant and you and your luggage weigh 200 lb. That's $10 per lb. Much cheaper. Plus, the airplane ticket price includes the cost of a comfortable temperature and breathable atmosphere in the main c...
Source: FuturePundit - December 26, 2015 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
