Lightning In Erupting Calbuco Volcano
Check out the lightning from the Calbuco volcano in Chile: A time-lapsed view: So far the Calbuco eruption does not look to be as big as Mount Pinatubo in 1991 or Mount St. Helens in 1980. Pinatubo lowered global temperatures by about 0.5C. The big eruptions matter because they can cause climate changes that cause crop failures. An eruption on the scale of the 1815 Tambora eruption would cause massive crop failures and famine in many countries.... (Source: FuturePundit)
Source: FuturePundit - April 27, 2015 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
All Job Increases Since 2001 Are In Non-Routine Work
If a job involves executing a series of rules or a simple series of physical manipulations it is a candidate for automation by increasingly powerful computers. Routine work in the United States is down about 7% since 2001 in spite of a growing population. What I find interesting: the routine brain work (bank teller, clerk) is down as much as the routine brawn work (machine tool operator, other factory worker). The drop was very steep going into the 2008 recession. Possibly the drop in demand and profits spurred companies to go implement labor-saving technology that already existed. If you work in a routine occupation What ...
Source: FuturePundit - April 26, 2015 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
North American Boreal Forest Productivity Drop With Biodiversity Loss
Lower plant biodiversity cuts tree productivity in the boreal forest that spans across Alaska and Canada. Empirical evidence from Alaska's boreal forest suggests that every 1 percent reduction in overall plant diversity could render an average of .23 percent decline in individual tree productivity. I've previously argued that boreal forests could be selectively harvested to sink carbon underwater so that new forest growth to replace the falled trees could pull more carbon out of the atmosphere. This would need to be done in a way that did not impact forest productivity. The boreal forest of Canada and Alaska is the world's...
Source: FuturePundit - April 26, 2015 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
Chinese Scientists Try Gene Editing On Human Embryos
Chinese scientists used the CRISPR-CAS9 genetic editing tools to genetically edit human embryos. No, they did not implant the embryos in human wombs. They did not even start with embryos viable enough for implantation. The goal was to genetically test the results and measure the accuracy of the genetic edits. The scientists found the genetic editing was not precise enough. Not all embryos got the desired modification. Some got undesired genetic mods. The tech is not mature enough. Will improved CRISPR-CAS9 techniques eventually become viable or will other approaches be necessary? Some American scientists want a moratorium ...
Source: FuturePundit - April 24, 2015 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
The World Divided Into 7 Regions, 1 Billion People Each
This is amazing. Look at just a portion of India and Bangladesh. The World Divided Into Seven Regions, Each with a Population of One Billion pic.twitter.com/39e5uYZ8oe— Amazing Maps (@amazinmaps) April 19, 2015 By 2050 Africa will have more than 2 pieces of 1 billion each and 4 pieces by 2100. The planet as a whole will have 10 pieces of 1 billion each some time in the 2050s. If you want to go see wild big animals in Africa do not wait too long. They'll be gone from human expansion and poaching.... (Source: FuturePundit)
Source: FuturePundit - April 19, 2015 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
Trading Off Between Living Standard And Health Care
On Twitter Andrew McAfee asked: Legitimately tough Q: would you rather have 2014 standard of living and 1964 health care, or vice versa? http://t.co/dxVt9NkPVB— Andrew McAfee (@amcafee) April 18, 2015 To which I replied: @amcafee I'll raise you another 40 years: I'd rather have 1924 standard of living and 2054 health care (rejuvenation therapy).— Randall Parker (@futurepundit) April 18, 2015 Unfortunately, for most people 2014 health care does not do all that much. If you have a chronic untreatable condition in 2014 then all the advances since 1964 aren't helping you much. If your doctor just told you t...
Source: FuturePundit - April 19, 2015 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
Wal-Mart Cutting Layer Of Management, Raising Wages
We've heard that Wal-Mart is going to raise the wages of their lowest ranked employees to $10 per hour. What's more interesting: they are cutting a layer of management in stores while boosting department manager wages as high as $15 per hour. What will these stores be like 10, 15 years from now? Automated shelf stocking. Automated floor cleaning. The remaining staff will be better paid customer specialists. You will go to a store in order to get human help when buying. This will cut into the already bleak employment prospects for the least skilled. Imagine check-out 20 years from now. You will arrive at the front of the st...
Source: FuturePundit - April 18, 2015 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
Airware Software For Drones
A VC-funded start-up, Airware, is supplying a software solution to drone makers. This will reduce the barriers to entry for drone developers. The software is going to contain most of the design for regulatory compliance. So each drone developer will have an easier time passing muster with regulators. Plus, each drone application developer will only have to develop code for their own application area, not all the pieces needed to develop a complete drone. Examples of current human jobs where drones will cut labor and other costs: Some lifeguarding at beaches. Inspection of pipelines, bridges, dams, and large complex industr...
Source: FuturePundit - April 18, 2015 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
Better Body Software Will Make People Less Equal
DNA upgrades will be most beneficial for future generations. But those already alive who can afford it will get gene therapy, cell therapy, and replacement organs that will have lots of fixes to the DNA. What will be the impact at the societal level? Yuval Noah Harari tells Daniel Kahneman that medicine will increase the gap between the richest and the poorest. I'll slightly amend that: biotechnology will increase the gap in abilities, drive, and therefore achievement. But we might not call it medicine. After medicine in the 20th century focused on healing the sick, now it is more and more focused on upgrading the healthy,...
Source: FuturePundit - April 17, 2015 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
200th Anniversary Of Tambora Volcanic Eruption
The April 10, 1815 eruption of Tambora in what is now a part of Indonesia caused 1816 to be known as "the year without summer". Crop failures due to freezing temperatures in New England caused migrations toward the midwest.. Migrations, civil unrest, hunger, and disease happened in Europe as well. A volcanic eruption of this magnitude is rare but could happen again at any time. If it does expect very expensive food and freezing temperatures on some summer days.... (Source: FuturePundit)
Source: FuturePundit - April 9, 2015 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
Airline Pilots Manually Fly Airplanes For 3.5-7 Minutes Per Flight
The Germanwings suicidal/homicidal depressed and narcissistic pilot is providing the impetus to speed up development of remote and robotic ways to control an airplane. Already pilots spend very little time controlling an airplane manually. Boeing pilots work twice as hard as Airbus pilots. Does that make the Airbus pilots lazy? Or the Boeing pilots overworked? In a recent survey of airline pilots, those operating Boeing 777s reported that they spent just seven minutes manually piloting their planes in a typical flight. Pilots operating Airbus planes spent half that time. NASA is going for remote control by ground operators...
Source: FuturePundit - April 7, 2015 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
Regulations For Offspring Genetic Engineering
CRISPR-Cas9 has made the prospect of offspring genetic engineering seem a lot more real. The prospect of genetically much altered future generations is no longer in the distant science fiction future but rather in the "some of the people reading this will live to see it on large scale" future. So lets think about how governments will respond. In different countries the populations, elected officials, monarchs, and dictators will react to biotech for gene editing the germ line (embryos and cells that eventually become embryos) in different ways: Outright ban. Allow only for prevention of genetic defects. Mandate editing to ...
Source: FuturePundit - April 4, 2015 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
Higher Intensity Exercise Better Before Fatty Meal
Beware of old sayings. Everything in moderation? Bad advice. A short burst of intensive exercise before eating a high fat meal is better for blood vessel function in young people than the currently recommended moderate-intensity exercise, according to a new study from the University of Exeter. So the local burger joint should have exercise machines which let you pay to do a really intense leg and arm work-out before you order your half pounder with cheese. It showed that approximately 25 minutes of moderate-intensity cycling prevented the fall in blood vessel function after the high fat meal. However, performing just eight...
Source: FuturePundit - March 31, 2015 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
Suppose US West Gets A Mega-Drought
If a mega-drought lasting decades comes to pass in the American and Canadian West what should we do about it? According to Cook, the current likelihood of a megadrought, a drought lasting more than three decades, is 12 percent. If greenhouse gas emissions stop increasing in the mid-21st century, Cook and his colleagues project the likelihood of megadrought to reach more than 60 percent. However, if greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase along current trajectories throughout the 21st century, there is an 80 percent likelihood of a decades-long megadrought in the Southwest and Central Plains between the years 2050 and...
Source: FuturePundit - March 22, 2015 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
Scientists Call For Wait On Human Germ Line Genetic Alterations
Some scientists want a moratorium on using the Crispr-Cas9 genetic editing technique to modify germ line DNA. The germ line is the DNA that gets passed from parents to offspring. Basically, they are arguing against offspring genetic engineering until the safety of the technique can be assured. A team of scientists at UCSD has just announced an improvement on Crispr-Cas9 for editing chromosomes to alter the germ line DNA. Their technique alters both chromosomes and can convert chromosomes that are heterogeneous (differing between the a pair of chromosomes) to make them homozygous for the new desired sequence. Got a better s...
Source: FuturePundit - March 20, 2015 Category: Research Authors: Randall Parker Source Type: blogs
