IFC, Ed Board
Publication date: June 2018Source: Epidemics, Volume 23Author(s): (Source: Epidemics)
Source: Epidemics - July 5, 2018 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Comparison of cluster-based and source-attribution methods for estimating transmission risk using large HIV sequence databases
Publication date: June 2018Source: Epidemics, Volume 23Author(s): Stéphane Le Vu, Oliver Ratmann, Valerie Delpech, Alison E. Brown, O. Noel Gill, Anna Tostevin, Christophe Fraser, Erik M. VolzAbstractPhylogenetic clustering of HIV sequences from a random sample of patients can reveal epidemiological transmission patterns, but interpretation is hampered by limited theoretical support and statistical properties of clustering analysis remain poorly understood. Alternatively, source attribution methods allow fitting of HIV transmission models and thereby quantify aspects of disease transmission.A simulation study was conducte...
Source: Epidemics - July 5, 2018 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Dynamics and control of infections on social networks of population types
Publication date: June 2018Source: Epidemics, Volume 23Author(s): Brian G. Williams, Christopher DyeAbstractRandom mixing in host populations has been a convenient simplifying assumption in the study of epidemics, but neglects important differences in contact rates within and between population groups. For HIV/AIDS, the assumption of random mixing is inappropriate for epidemics that are concentrated in groups of people at high risk, including female sex workers (FSW) and their male clients (MCF), injecting drug users (IDU) and men who have sex with men (MSM). To find out who transmits infection to whom and how that affects...
Source: Epidemics - July 5, 2018 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Digital Dermatitis in dairy cattle: The contribution of different disease classes to transmission
Publication date: June 2018Source: Epidemics, Volume 23Author(s): Floor Biemans, Piter Bijma, Natasja M. Boots, Mart C.M. de JongAbstractDigital Dermatitis (DD) is a claw disease mainly affecting the hind feet of dairy cattle. Digital Dermatitis is an infectious disease, transmitted via the environment, where the infectious “agent” is a combination of bacteria. The standardized classification for DD lesions developed by Döpfer et al. (1997) and extended by Berry et al. (2012) has six distinct classes: healthy (M0), an active granulomatous area of 0–2 cm (M1), an ulcerative lesion of>2 cm (M2), an ulcerative lesi...
Source: Epidemics - July 5, 2018 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Modeling HIV disease progression and transmission at population-level: The potential impact of modifying disease progression in HIV treatment programs
ConclusionEven when compared with valacyclovir suppression, a drug that reduces HIV viral load, universal treatment for HIV is the optimal strategy for averting new infections and increasing public health benefit. Universal HIV treatment would most effectively and efficiently reduce the HIV burden. (Source: Epidemics)
Source: Epidemics - July 5, 2018 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
An infectious way to teach students about outbreaks
Publication date: June 2018Source: Epidemics, Volume 23Author(s): Íde Cremin, Oliver Watson, Alastair Heffernan, Natsuko Imai, Norin Ahmed, Sandra Bivegete, Teresia Kimani, Demetris Kyriacou, Preveina Mahadevan, Rima Mustafa, Panagiota Pagoni, Marisa Sophiea, Charlie Whittaker, Leo Beacroft, Steven Riley, Matthew C. FisherAbstractThe study of infectious disease outbreaks is required to train today’s epidemiologists. A typical way to introduce and explain key epidemiological concepts is through the analysis of a historical outbreak. There are, however, few training options that explicitly utilise real-time simulated stoc...
Source: Epidemics - July 5, 2018 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
epidemix—An interactive multi-model application for teaching and visualizing infectious disease transmission
Publication date: June 2018Source: Epidemics, Volume 23Author(s): Ulrich Muellner, Guillaume Fournié, Petra Muellner, Christina Ahlstrom, Dirk U. PfeifferAbstractMathematical models of disease transmission are used to improve our understanding of patterns of infection and to identify factors influencing them. During recent public and animal health crises, such as pandemic influenza, Ebola, Zika, foot-and-mouth disease, models have made important contributions in addressing policy questions, especially through the assessment of the trajectory and scale of outbreaks, and the evaluation of control interventions. However, the...
Source: Epidemics - July 5, 2018 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
The importance of being urgent: The impact of surveillance target and scale on mosquito-borne disease control
Publication date: June 2018Source: Epidemics, Volume 23Author(s): Samantha R. Schwab, Chris M. Stone, Dina M. Fonseca, Nina H. FeffermanAbstractWith the emergence or re-emergence of numerous mosquito-borne diseases in recent years, effective methods for emergency vector control responses are necessary to reduce human infections. Current vector control practices often vary significantly between different jurisdictions, and are executed independently and at different spatial scales. Various types of surveillance information (e.g. number of human infections or adult mosquitoes) trigger the implementation of control measures, ...
Source: Epidemics - July 5, 2018 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Species interactions may help explain the erratic periodicity of whooping cough dynamics
Publication date: June 2018Source: Epidemics, Volume 23Author(s): Samit Bhattacharyya, Matthew J. Ferrari, Ottar N. BjørnstadAbstractIncidence of whooping cough exhibits variable dynamics across time and space. The periodicity of this disease varies from annual to five years in different geographic regions in both developing and developed countries. Many hypotheses have been put forward to explain this variability such as nonlinearity and seasonality, stochasticity, variable recruitment of susceptible individuals via birth, immunization, and immune boosting. We propose an alternative hypothesis to describe the variability...
Source: Epidemics - July 5, 2018 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Contact tracing for the control of infectious disease epidemics: Chronic Wasting Disease in deer farms
Publication date: June 2018Source: Epidemics, Volume 23Author(s): Chris Rorres, Maria Romano, Jennifer A. Miller, Jana M. Mossey, Tony H. Grubesic, David E. Zellner, Gary SmithAbstractContact tracing is a crucial component of the control of many infectious diseases, but is an arduous and time consuming process. Procedures that increase the efficiency of contact tracing increase the chance that effective controls can be implemented sooner and thus reduce the magnitude of the epidemic. We illustrate a procedure using Graph Theory in the context of infectious disease epidemics of farmed animals in which the epidemics are driv...
Source: Epidemics - July 5, 2018 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Quantitative risk assessment of salmon louse-induced mortality of seaward-migrating post-smolt Atlantic salmon
Publication date: June 2018Source: Epidemics, Volume 23Author(s): Anja Bråthen Kristoffersen, Lars Qviller, Kari Olli Helgesen, Knut Wiik Vollset, Hildegunn Viljugrein, Peder Andreas JansenAbstractThe Norwegian government recently implemented a new management system to regulate salmon farming in Norway, aiming to promote environmentally sustainable growth in the aquaculture industry. The Norwegian coast has been divided into 13 production zones and the volume of salmonid production in the zones will be regulated based on salmon lice effects on wild salmonids. Here we present a model for assessing salmon louse-induced mort...
Source: Epidemics - July 5, 2018 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
The 2017 plague outbreak in Madagascar: Data descriptions and epidemic modelling
Publication date: Available online 2 June 2018Source: EpidemicsAuthor(s): Van Kinh Nguyen, César Parra-Rojas, Esteban A. Hernandez-VargasAbstractFrom August to November 2017, Madagascar endured an outbreak of plague. A total of 2417 cases of plague were confirmed, causing a death toll of 209. Public health intervention efforts were introduced and successfully stopped the epidemic at the end of November. The plague, however, is endemic in the region and occurs annually, posing the risk of future outbreaks. To understand the plague transmission, we collected real-time data from official reports, described the outbreak's cha...
Source: Epidemics - July 5, 2018 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
The 2017 plague outbreak in Madagascar: Data descriptions and epidemic modelling
Publication date: Available online 2 June 2018 Source:Epidemics Author(s): Van Kinh Nguyen, César Parra-Rojas, Esteban A. Hernandez-Vargas From August to November 2017, Madagascar endured an outbreak of plague. A total of 2417 cases of plague were confirmed, causing a death toll of 209. Public health intervention efforts were introduced and successfully stopped the epidemic at the end of November. The plague, however, is endemic in the region and occurs annually, posing the risk of future outbreaks. To understand the plague transmission, we collected real-time data from official reports, described the outbreak's char...
Source: Epidemics - June 2, 2018 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Estimating the effective reproduction number of dengue considering temperature-dependent generation intervals
Publication date: Available online 31 May 2018 Source:Epidemics Author(s): Claudia T. Codeço, Daniel A.M. Villela, Flavio C. Coelho The effective reproduction number, R t , is a measure of transmission that can be calculated from standard incidence data to timely detect the beginning of epidemics. It has being increasingly used for surveillance of directly transmitted diseases. However, current methods for R t estimation do not apply for vector borne diseases, whose transmission cycle depends on temperature. Here we propose a method that provides dengue's R t estimates in the presence of temperature-mediated seasonal...
Source: Epidemics - May 31, 2018 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Practical unidentifiability of a simple vector-borne disease model: implications for parameter estimation and intervention assessment
Publication date: Available online 26 May 2018 Source:Epidemics Author(s): Yu-Han Kao, Marisa C. Eisenberg Mathematical modeling has an extensive history in vector-borne disease epidemiology, and is increasingly used for prediction, intervention design, and understanding mechanisms. Many studies rely on parameter estimation to link models and data, and to tailor predictions and counterfactuals to specific settings. However, few studies have formally evaluated whether vector-borne disease models can properly estimate the parameters of interest given the constraints of a particular dataset. Identifiability analysis allow...
Source: Epidemics - May 26, 2018 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
