Modeling HIV disease progression and transmission at population-level: The potential impact of modifying disease progression in HIV treatment programs
ConclusionEven when compared with valacyclovir suppression, a drug that reduces HIV viral load, universal treatment for HIV is the optimal strategy for averting new infections and increasing public health benefit. Universal HIV treatment would most effectively and efficiently reduce the HIV burden. (Source: Epidemics)
Source: Epidemics - July 11, 2018 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
An infectious way to teach students about outbreaks
Publication date: June 2018Source: Epidemics, Volume 23Author(s): Íde Cremin, Oliver Watson, Alastair Heffernan, Natsuko Imai, Norin Ahmed, Sandra Bivegete, Teresia Kimani, Demetris Kyriacou, Preveina Mahadevan, Rima Mustafa, Panagiota Pagoni, Marisa Sophiea, Charlie Whittaker, Leo Beacroft, Steven Riley, Matthew C. FisherAbstractThe study of infectious disease outbreaks is required to train today’s epidemiologists. A typical way to introduce and explain key epidemiological concepts is through the analysis of a historical outbreak. There are, however, few training options that explicitly utilise real-time simulated stoc...
Source: Epidemics - July 11, 2018 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
epidemix—An interactive multi-model application for teaching and visualizing infectious disease transmission
Publication date: June 2018Source: Epidemics, Volume 23Author(s): Ulrich Muellner, Guillaume Fournié, Petra Muellner, Christina Ahlstrom, Dirk U. PfeifferAbstractMathematical models of disease transmission are used to improve our understanding of patterns of infection and to identify factors influencing them. During recent public and animal health crises, such as pandemic influenza, Ebola, Zika, foot-and-mouth disease, models have made important contributions in addressing policy questions, especially through the assessment of the trajectory and scale of outbreaks, and the evaluation of control interventions. However, the...
Source: Epidemics - July 11, 2018 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
The importance of being urgent: The impact of surveillance target and scale on mosquito-borne disease control
Publication date: June 2018Source: Epidemics, Volume 23Author(s): Samantha R. Schwab, Chris M. Stone, Dina M. Fonseca, Nina H. FeffermanAbstractWith the emergence or re-emergence of numerous mosquito-borne diseases in recent years, effective methods for emergency vector control responses are necessary to reduce human infections. Current vector control practices often vary significantly between different jurisdictions, and are executed independently and at different spatial scales. Various types of surveillance information (e.g. number of human infections or adult mosquitoes) trigger the implementation of control measures, ...
Source: Epidemics - July 11, 2018 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Species interactions may help explain the erratic periodicity of whooping cough dynamics
Publication date: June 2018Source: Epidemics, Volume 23Author(s): Samit Bhattacharyya, Matthew J. Ferrari, Ottar N. BjørnstadAbstractIncidence of whooping cough exhibits variable dynamics across time and space. The periodicity of this disease varies from annual to five years in different geographic regions in both developing and developed countries. Many hypotheses have been put forward to explain this variability such as nonlinearity and seasonality, stochasticity, variable recruitment of susceptible individuals via birth, immunization, and immune boosting. We propose an alternative hypothesis to describe the variability...
Source: Epidemics - July 11, 2018 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Quantitative risk assessment of salmon louse-induced mortality of seaward-migrating post-smolt Atlantic salmon
Publication date: June 2018Source: Epidemics, Volume 23Author(s): Anja Bråthen Kristoffersen, Lars Qviller, Kari Olli Helgesen, Knut Wiik Vollset, Hildegunn Viljugrein, Peder Andreas JansenAbstractThe Norwegian government recently implemented a new management system to regulate salmon farming in Norway, aiming to promote environmentally sustainable growth in the aquaculture industry. The Norwegian coast has been divided into 13 production zones and the volume of salmonid production in the zones will be regulated based on salmon lice effects on wild salmonids. Here we present a model for assessing salmon louse-induced mort...
Source: Epidemics - July 11, 2018 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
The 2017 plague outbreak in Madagascar: Data descriptions and epidemic modelling
Publication date: Available online 2 June 2018Source: EpidemicsAuthor(s): Van Kinh Nguyen, César Parra-Rojas, Esteban A. Hernandez-VargasAbstractFrom August to November 2017, Madagascar endured an outbreak of plague. A total of 2417 cases of plague were confirmed, causing a death toll of 209. Public health intervention efforts were introduced and successfully stopped the epidemic at the end of November. The plague, however, is endemic in the region and occurs annually, posing the risk of future outbreaks. To understand the plague transmission, we collected real-time data from official reports, described the outbreak's cha...
Source: Epidemics - July 11, 2018 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Superensemble forecast of respiratory syncytial virus outbreaks at national, regional, and state levels in the United States
Publication date: Available online 9 July 2018Source: EpidemicsAuthor(s): Julia Reis, Teresa Yamana, Sasikiran Kandula, Jeffrey ShamanAbstractRespiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections peak during the winter months in the United States, yet the timing, intensity, and onset of these outbreaks vary each year. An RSV vaccine is on the cusp of being released; precise models and accurate forecasts of RSV epidemics may prove vital for planning where and when the vaccine should be deployed. Accurate forecasts with sufficient spatial and temporal resolution could also be used to support the prevention or treatment of RSV infecti...
Source: Epidemics - July 11, 2018 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Acute illness from Campylobacter jejuni may require high doses while infection occurs at low doses
Publication date: Available online 8 February 2018Source: EpidemicsAuthor(s): Peter F.M. Teunis, Axel Bonačić Marinović, David R. Tribble, Chad K. Porter, Arno SwartAbstractData from a set of different studies on the infectivity and pathogenicity of Campylobacter jejuni were analyzed with a multilevel model, allowing for effects of host species (nonhuman primates and humans) and different strains of the pathogen.All challenge studies involved high doses of the pathogen, resulting in all exposed subjects to become infected. In only one study a dose response effect (increasing trend with dose) for infection was observed. ...
Source: Epidemics - July 5, 2018 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
The distribution of district-level leprosy incidence in India is geometric-stable, consistent with subcriticality
Publication date: Available online 14 February 2018Source: EpidemicsAuthor(s): Thomas M. Lietman, Lee Worden, Fengchen Liu, Travis C. PorcoAbstractMathematical models predict that the community-level incidence of a controlled infectious disease across a region approaches a geometric distribution. This could hold over larger regions, if new cases remain proportional to existing cases. Leprosy has been disappearing for centuries, making an excellent candidate for testing this hypothesis. Here, we show the annual new case detection rate of leprosy in Indian districts to be consistent with a geometric distribution. For 2008–...
Source: Epidemics - July 5, 2018 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Results from the second year of a collaborative effort to forecast influenza seasons in the United States
Publication date: Available online 24 February 2018Source: EpidemicsAuthor(s): Matthew Biggerstaff, Michael Johansson, David Alper, Logan C. Brooks, Prithwish Chakraborty, David C. Farrow, Sangwon Hyun, Sasikiran Kandula, Craig McGowan, Naren Ramakrishnan, Roni Rosenfeld, Jeffrey Shaman, Rob Tibshirani, Ryan J. Tibshirani, Alessandro Vespignani, Wan Yang, Qian Zhang, Carrie ReedAbstractAccurate forecasts could enable more informed public health decisions. Since 2013, CDC has worked with external researchers to improve influenza forecasts by coordinating seasonal challenges for the United States and the 10 Health and Human ...
Source: Epidemics - July 5, 2018 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Identifying genotype specific elevated-risk areas and associated herd risk factors for bovine tuberculosis spread in British cattle
Publication date: Available online 1 March 2018Source: EpidemicsAuthor(s): R.J. Orton, M. Deason, P.R. Bessell, D.M. Green, R.R. Kao, L.C.M. SalvadorAbstractBovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a chronic zoonosis with major health and economic impact on the cattle industry. Despite extensive control measures in cattle and culling trials in wildlife, the reasons behind the expansion of areas with high incidence of bTB breakdowns in Great Britain remain unexplained. By balancing the importance of cattle movements and local transmission on the observed pattern of cattle outbreaks, we identify areas at elevated risk of infection from ...
Source: Epidemics - July 5, 2018 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Two approaches to forecast Ebola synthetic epidemics
We describe fitting and forecasting procedures for each model and discuss their advantages and drawbacks. We did not find that one model was consistently better in forecasting than the other. (Source: Epidemics)
Source: Epidemics - July 5, 2018 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Using data-driven agent-based models for forecasting emerging infectious diseases
We describe the various components of the model, the calibration process and summarize the forecast performance across scenarios of the challenge. We conclude by highlighting how such a data-driven approach can be refined and adapted for future epidemics, and share the lessons learned over the course of the challenge. (Source: Epidemics)
Source: Epidemics - July 5, 2018 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
