Managing Marek’s disease in the egg industry
Publication date: Available online 2 February 2019Source: EpidemicsAuthor(s): Carly Rozins, Troy Day, Scott GreenhalghAbstractThe industrialization of farming has had an enormous impact. To most, this impact is viewed solely in the context of productivity, but the denser living conditions and shorter rearing periods of industrial livestock farms provide pathogens with an ideal opportunity to spread and evolve. For example, the industrialization of poultry farms drove the Marek’s disease virus (MDV) to evolve from a mild paralytic syndrome to a highly contagious, globally prevalent, deadly disease. Fortunately, the econom...
Source: Epidemics - February 2, 2019 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Assessing the role of dens in the spread, establishment and persistence of sarcoptic mange in an endangered canid
Publication date: Available online 8 January 2019Source: EpidemicsAuthor(s): Diego Montecino-Latorre, Brian L. Cypher, Jaime L. Rudd, Deana L. Clifford, Jonna A.K. Mazet, Janet E. FoleyAbstractSarcoptic mange is a skin disease caused by the mite Sarcoptes scabiei that can devastate populations of wild species. S. scabiei can survive off-host and remain infective for specific periods. In den-dwelling species, dislodged mites could be protected from the environmental conditions that impair their survival thus supporting pathogen transmission. To assess the potential role of dens in the spread, establishment, and persistence ...
Source: Epidemics - January 30, 2019 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Near-term Forecasts of Influenza-like Illness: An Evaluation of Autoregressive Time Series Approaches
Publication date: Available online 17 January 2019Source: EpidemicsAuthor(s): Sasikiran Kandula, Jeffrey ShamanAbstractSeasonal influenza in the United States is estimated to cause 9-35 million illnesses annually, with resultant economic burden amounting to $47-$150 billion. Reliable real-time forecasts of influenza can help public health agencies better manage these outbreaks. Here, we investigate the feasibility of three autoregressive methods for near-term forecasts: an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model with time-varying order; an ARIMA model fit to seasonally adjusted incidence rates (ARIMA-STL); a...
Source: Epidemics - January 18, 2019 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
A practical generation-interval-based approach to inferring the strength of epidemics from their speed
Publication date: Available online 10 January 2019Source: EpidemicsAuthor(s): Sang Woo Park, David Champredon, Joshua S. Weitz, Jonathan DushoffAbstractInfectious-disease outbreaks are often characterized by the reproduction number R and exponential rate of growth r. R provides information about outbreak control and predicted final size, but estimating R is difficult, while r can often be estimated directly from incidence data. These quantities are linked by the generation interval – the time between when an individual is infected by an infector, and when that infector was infected. It is often infeasible to obtain the e...
Source: Epidemics - January 11, 2019 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Assessing the role of dens in the spread, establishment, and persistence of sarcoptic mange in an endangered canid
Publication date: Available online 8 January 2019Source: EpidemicsAuthor(s): Diego Montecino-LatorreAbstractSarcoptic mange is a skin disease caused by the mite Sarcoptes scabiei that can devastate populations of wild species. S. scabiei can survive off-host and remain infective for specific periods. In den-dwelling species, dislodged mites could be protected from the environmental conditions that impair their survival thus supporting pathogen transmission. To assess the potential role of dens in the spread, establishment, and persistence of sarcoptic mange in a population of hosts, we constructed an agent-based model of t...
Source: Epidemics - January 9, 2019 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
GEOFIL: A Spatially-Explicit Agent-Based Modelling Framework for Predicting the Long-term Transmission Dynamics of Lymphatic Filariasis in American Samoa
In this study, a spatially-explicit agent-based modelling framework GEOFIL was developed to predict lymphatic filariasis (LF) transmission dynamics in American Samoa. GEOFIL included individual-level information on age, gender, disease status, household location, household members, workplace/school location and colleagues/schoolmates at each time step during the simulation. In American Samoa, annual mass drug administration from 2000 to 2006 successfully reduced LF prevalence dramatically. However, GEOFIL predicted continual increase in microfilaraemia prevalence in the absence of further intervention. Evidence from seropr...
Source: Epidemics - December 30, 2018 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Model-based estimates of transmission of respiratory syncytial virus within households
DiscussionOur analysis presents the first transmission modelling of cohort data for RSV and we find that it is important to consider the household social structuring and household size when modelling transmission. The increased infectiousness of symptomatic individuals implies that a vaccine against RSV related disease would also have an impact on infection transmission. Together, the weak cross immunity between RSV groups and the possibility of different transmission niches could form part of the explanation for the group co-existence.Graphical Abstract (Source: Epidemics)
Source: Epidemics - December 16, 2018 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
The role of intra and inter-hospital patient transfer in the dissemination of heathcare-associated multidrug-resistant pathogens
Publication date: Available online 30 November 2018Source: EpidemicsAuthor(s): T.N. Vilches, M.F. Bonesso, H.M. Guerra, C.M.C.B. Fortaleza, A.W. Park, C.P. FerreiraAbstractHealthcare-associated infections cause significant patient morbidity and mortality, and contribute to growing healthcare costs, whose effects may be felt most strongly in developing countries. Active surveillance systems, hospital staff compliance, including hand hygiene, and a rational use of antimicrobials are among the important measures to mitigate the spread of healthcare-associated infection within and between hospitals. Klebsiella pneumoniae is an...
Source: Epidemics - December 1, 2018 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Fogarty International Center collaborative networks in infectious disease modeling: lessons learnt in research and capacity building
Publication date: Available online 23 October 2018Source: EpidemicsAuthor(s): Martha I. Nelson, James O. Lloyd-Smith, Lone Simonsen, Andrew Rambaut, Edward C. Holmes, Gerardo Chowell, Mark A. Miller, David J. Spiro, Bryan Grenfell, Cécile ViboudAbstractDue to a combination of ecological, political, and demographic factors, the emergence of novel pathogens has been increasingly observed in animals and humans in recent decades. Enhancing global capacity to study and interpret infectious disease surveillance data, and to develop data-driven computational models to guide policy, represents one of the most cost-effective, and ...
Source: Epidemics - October 23, 2018 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
The impact of influenza vaccination on infection, hospitalisation and mortality in the Netherlands between 2003 and 2015.
Publication date: Available online 11 October 2018Source: EpidemicsAuthor(s): J.A. Backer, J. Wallinga, A. Meijer, G.A. Donker, W. van der Hoek, M. van BovenAbstractInfluenza epidemics annually cause substantial morbidity and mortality. For this reason, vaccination is offered yearly to persons with an elevated risk for complications. Assessments of the impact of vaccination are, however, hampered by year-to-year variation in epidemic size and vaccine effectiveness.We estimate the impact of the current vaccination programme comparing simulations with vaccination to counterfactual simulations without vaccination. The simulat...
Source: Epidemics - October 12, 2018 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Vaccinating children against influenza increases variability in epidemic size
Publication date: Available online 10 October 2018Source: EpidemicsAuthor(s): J.A. Backer, M. van Boven, W. van der Hoek, J. WallingaAbstractSeasonal influenza causes a high disease burden. Many influenza vaccination programmes target the elderly and persons at high risk of complications. Some countries have recommended or even implemented a paediatric vaccination programme. Such a programme is expected to reduce influenza transmission in the population, offering direct protection to the vaccinated children and indirect protection to the elderly.We study the impact of a child vaccination programme with an age- and risk-str...
Source: Epidemics - October 10, 2018 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Geographic Transmission Hubs of the 2009 Influenza Pandemic in the United States
Publication date: Available online 10 October 2018Source: EpidemicsAuthor(s): Stephen M. Kissler, Julia R. Gog, Cécile Viboud, Vivek Charu, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Lone Simonsen, Bryan T. GrenfellAbstractA key issue in infectious disease epidemiology is to identify and predict geographic sites of epidemic establishment that contribute to onward spread, especially in the context of invasion waves of emerging pathogens. Conventional wisdom suggests that these sites are likely to be in densely-populated, well-connected areas. For pandemic influenza, however, epidemiological data have not been available at a fine enough geograph...
Source: Epidemics - October 10, 2018 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Correlations between stochastic epidemics in two interacting populations
Publication date: Available online 30 August 2018Source: EpidemicsAuthor(s): Sophie R Meakin, Matt J KeelingAbstractIt is increasingly apparent that heterogeneity in the interaction between individuals plays an important role in the dynamics, persistence, evolution and control of infectious diseases. In epidemic modelling two main forms of heterogeneity are commonly considered: spatial heterogeneity due to the segregation of populations and heterogeneity in risk at the same location. The transition from random-mixing to heterogeneous-mixing models is made by incorporating the interaction, or coupling, within and between su...
Source: Epidemics - August 31, 2018 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Sexual role and HIV-1 set point viral load among men who have sex with men
ConclusionsMode of acquisition may be an important aspect of SPVL evolution in MSM, with clinical implications.Graphical abstract (Source: Epidemics)
Source: Epidemics - August 31, 2018 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Transmission on empirical dynamic contact networks is influenced by data processing decisions
In this study, we examine how four processing decisions, including temporal sampling window (TSW), spatial threshold of contact (SpTh), minimum contact duration (MCD), and temporal aggregation (daily or hourly) influence the information content of contact data (indicated by changes in entropy) as well as disease transmission model dynamics. We found that changes made to information content by processing decisions translated to significant impacts to the transmission dynamics of disease models using the contact data. In particular, we found that SpTh had the largest independent influence on information content, and that som...
Source: Epidemics - August 31, 2018 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
