Analytic Methods in Accident Research 
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This is an RSS file. You can use it to subscribe to this data in your favourite RSS reader or to display this data on your own website or blog.The temporal stability of factors affecting driver-injury severities in single-vehicle crashes: Some empirical evidence
This study explores the temporal stability of factors affecting driver-injury severities in single-vehicle crashes. Using data for single-vehicle crashes in Chicago, Illinois from a nine-year period from January 1, 2004 to December 31, 2012, separate annual models of driver-injury severities (with possible outcomes of severe injury, minor injury, and no injury) were estimated using a mixed logit model to capture potential unobserved heterogeneity. Likelihood ratio tests were conducted to examine the overall stability of model estimates across time periods and marginal effects of each explanatory variable were also consider...
Source: Analytic Methods in Accident Research - September 28, 2015 Category: Accident Prevention Source Type: research
A note on generalized ordered outcome models
Publication date: December 2015 Source:Analytic Methods in Accident Research, Volume 8 Author(s): Naveen Eluru, Shamsunnahar Yasmin While there is growing application of generalized ordered outcome model variants (widely known as Generalized Ordered Logit (GOL) model and Partial Proportional Odds Logit (PPO) model) in crash injury severity analysis, there are several aspects of these approaches that are not well documented in extant safety literature. The current research note presents the relationship between these two variants of generalized ordered outcome models and elaborates on model interpretation issues. Wh...
Source: Analytic Methods in Accident Research - August 28, 2015 Category: Accident Prevention Source Type: research
Accident analysis with aggregated data: The random parameters negative binomial panel count data model
Publication date: July 2015 Source:Analytic Methods in Accident Research, Volume 7 Author(s): Emine Coruh, Abdulbaki Bilgic, Ahmet Tortum We analyzed factors affecting the frequency of accident counts in 81 cities over a three-year period (2008–2010) with monthly data using random-parameters negative binomial panel count data models. Among models considered, the random parameters model with the correlated coefficients outperformed the other models and was found to fit the data best with almost a perfect prediction of the conditional mean level. Most of variables used to control for the variation in the frequenc...
Source: Analytic Methods in Accident Research - August 22, 2015 Category: Accident Prevention Source Type: research
Accident analysis with The random parameters negative binomial panel count data model
Publication date: July 2015 Source:Analytic Methods in Accident Research, Volume 7 Author(s): Emine Coruh, Abdulbaki Bilgic, Ahmet Tortum We analyzed factors affecting the frequency of accident counts in 81 cities over a three-year period (2008–2010) with monthly data using random-parameters negative binomial panel count data models. Among models considered, the random parameters model with the correlated coefficients outperformed the other models and was found to fit the data best with almost a perfect prediction of the conditional mean level. Most of variables used to control for the variation in the frequenc...
Source: Analytic Methods in Accident Research - August 9, 2015 Category: Accident Prevention Source Type: research
Exploring the application of the Negative Binomial–Generalized Exponential model for analyzing traffic crash data with excess zeros
Publication date: July 2015 Source:Analytic Methods in Accident Research, Volume 7 Author(s): Prathyusha Vangala, Dominique Lord, Srinivas Reddy Geedipally In order to analyze crash data, many new analysis tools are being developed by transportation safety analysts. The Negative Binomial–Generalized Exponential distribution (NB–GE) is such a tool that was recently introduced to handle datasets characterized by a large number of zero counts and is over-dispersed. As the name suggests, this three-parameter distribution is a combination of both Negative binomial and Generalized Exponential distributions. So far,...
Source: Analytic Methods in Accident Research - July 29, 2015 Category: Accident Prevention Source Type: research
Simultaneous equation modeling of freeway accident duration and lanes blocked
Publication date: July 2015 Source:Analytic Methods in Accident Research, Volume 7 Author(s): Yi-Shih Chung , Yu-Chiun Chiou , Chia-Hua Lin Unbiased estimates are crucial to providing correct information that is required in accident management. Whereas earlier studies have proposed various approaches to reduce the adverse effects of unobserved heterogeneity, this study proposes accelerated failure time (AFT) models of accident duration with flexible distributions of the error term and the frailty parameter. A two-stage residual inclusion (2SRI) method for identifying the effects of endogenous variable in the nonline...
Source: Analytic Methods in Accident Research - June 9, 2015 Category: Accident Prevention Source Type: research
Fuzzy modeling of freeway accident duration with rainfall and traffic flow interactions
Publication date: January 2015 Source:Analytic Methods in Accident Research, Volumes 5–6 Author(s): Loukas Dimitriou , Eleni I. Vlahogianni Accident duration modeling has been considered as a difficult problem due to the variety of information (accident characteristics, traffic and weather information, geometry of the accident location and so on) that should be taken into account to improve predictions and explain the phenomenon. We introduce Fuzzy Rule-Based Systems to model freeway accident duration and cope with the uncertainties and complexities hindering in accident monitoring systems. The models are also comp...
Source: Analytic Methods in Accident Research - May 22, 2015 Category: Accident Prevention Source Type: research
Modeling crash frequency and severity with spatiotemporal dependence
This study proposes a novel multinomial generalized Poisson model with error components and spatiotemporal dependence (ST-EMGP) to analyze multi-period crash frequency and severity data. The proposed model not only simultaneously models crash frequency and severity, but also accommodates spatial and temporal dependence (spatiotemporal dependence) by specifying a spatiotemporal function. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed model, a case study is conducted on five consecutive years׳ (2004–2008) crash data of Taiwan׳s Freeway No. 1. Estimation results show that ST-EMGP model performs better than the models wi...
Source: Analytic Methods in Accident Research - May 16, 2015 Category: Accident Prevention Source Type: research
Analyzing the continuum of fatal crashes: A generalized ordered approach
Publication date: July 2015 Source:Analytic Methods in Accident Research, Volume 7 Author(s): Shamsunnahar Yasmin , Naveen Eluru , Abdul R. Pinjari In the United States, safety researchers have focused on examining fatal crashes (involving at least one fatally injured vehicle occupant) by using Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) dataset. FARS database compiles crashes if at least one person involved in the crash dies within 30 consecutive days from the time of crash along with the exact timeline of the fatal occurrence. Previous studies using FARS dataset offer many useful insights on what factors affect cras...
Source: Analytic Methods in Accident Research - May 16, 2015 Category: Accident Prevention Source Type: research
Effects of spatial correlation in random parameters collision count-data models
This study investigated the inclusion of spatial correlation in random parameters collision count-data models. Three different modeling formulations were applied to measure the effects of spatial correlation in random parameters models using three years of collision data collected from two cities, Richmond and Vancouver (British Columbia, Canada). The proposed models were estimated in a Full Bayesian (FB) context using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. The Deviance Information Criteria (DIC) values and chi-square statistics indicated that all the models were comparable to one another. According to the parameter...
Source: Analytic Methods in Accident Research - March 17, 2015 Category: Accident Prevention Source Type: research
Assessing risk-taking in a driving simulator study: Modeling longitudinal semi-continuous driving data using a two-part regression model with correlated random effects
Publication date: January 2015 Source:Analytic Methods in Accident Research, Volumes 5–6 Author(s): Van Tran , Danping Liu , Anuj K. Pradhan , Kaigang Li , C. Raymond Bingham , Bruce G. Simons-Morton , Paul S. Albert Signalized intersection management is a common measure of risky driving in simulator studies. In a recent randomized trial, investigators were interested in whether teenage males exposed to a risk-accepting passenger took more intersection risks in a driving simulator compared with those exposed to a risk-averse peer passenger. Analyses in this trial are complicated by the longitudinal or repeated...
Source: Analytic Methods in Accident Research - March 13, 2015 Category: Accident Prevention Source Type: research
Modeling over-dispersed crash data with a long tail: Examining the accuracy of the dispersion parameter in Negative Binomial models
Publication date: January 2015 Source:Analytic Methods in Accident Research, Volumes 5–6 Author(s): Yajie Zou , Lingtao Wu , Dominique Lord Despite many statistical models that have been proposed for modeling motor vehicle crashes, the most commonly used statistical tool remains the Negative Binomial (NB) model. Crash data collected for safety studies may exhibit over-dispersion and a long tail (i.e., a few sites have unusually high number of crashes). However, some studies have shown that NB models cannot handle over-dispersed count data with a long tail adequately. So far, no work has investigated the performanc...
Source: Analytic Methods in Accident Research - March 12, 2015 Category: Accident Prevention Source Type: research
Latent class analysis of the effects of age, gender, and alcohol consumption on driver-injury severities
This study explores the differences in driver-injury severity between drivers impaired and not-alcohol-impaired, while taking into consideration the role of age and gender. Using data from single-vehicle crashes from Illinois' Cook County over an eight-year period from January 1, 2004 to December 31, 2011, separate alcohol-impaired and not-alcohol-impaired models of driver-injury severity (with possible outcomes of no injury, minor injury, and severe injury) were estimated for younger male, older male, younger female, and older female drivers (those younger than 31 years old were considered younger drivers, and those 31 ye...
Source: Analytic Methods in Accident Research - December 14, 2014 Category: Occupational Health Source Type: research
Modeling driver behavior in dilemma zones: A discrete/continuous formulation with selectivity bias corrections
Publication date: October 2014 Source:Analytic Methods in Accident Research, Volumes 3–4 Author(s): Steven M. Lavrenz , V. Dimitra Pyrialakou , Konstantina Gkritza The evaluation of driver behavior in dilemma zones is of critical importance to traffic safety and intersection design, but has thus far received limited investigation. Internal and external factors that can influence this behavior include driver demographics, the use of technology in the vehicle, and even the type of dilemma zone—Type I (based on signal timing/intersection geometry) or Type II (based on driver indecision). This paper explores the eff...
Source: Analytic Methods in Accident Research - November 9, 2014 Category: Occupational Health Source Type: research
A Full Bayesian multivariate count data model of collision severity with spatial correlation
This study investigated the inclusion of spatial correlation in multivariate count data models of collision severity. The models were developed for severe (injury and fatal) and no-injury collisions using three years of collision data from the city of Richmond and the city of Vancouver. The proposed models were estimated in a Full Bayesian (FB) context via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. The multivariate model with both heterogeneous effects and spatial correlation provided the best fit according to the Deviance Information Criteria (DIC). The results showed significant positive correlation between various road...
Source: Analytic Methods in Accident Research - November 4, 2014 Category: Occupational Health Source Type: research
