Obamacare Delays May Hamper Spending On Medicines

Now that the patent cliff has faded into the rear view mirror for most drugmakers, the pharmaceutical industry should expect some heady growth. For instance, total global spending on medicines will exceed $1 trillion for the first time next year and hit $1.2 trillion by 2017, according to a new report from IMS Institute for Health Informatics. Not surprisingly, though, this growth will differ geographically. In the US, for instance, Obamacare will have a substantial impact. Depending upon moves by employers, healthcare providers and patients, a worst-case scenario would result in $300 billion to $320 billion in spending in 2017, whereas the best-case scenario amounts to $420 million to $460 billion. Essentially, this amounts to a 30 percent haircut. “Most of the time, the extent of the uncertainty is nowhere near as large as this,” says Michael Kleinrock, the IMS director of research, tells us. “It’s one of those moments that’s on the cusp of real fundamental change…. It’s just really uncertain, from an enrollment perspective, knowing what insurers, healthcare providers and patients will do.” Nonetheless, expanded healthcare coverage is expected to resume increased spending next year after two years of reductions. The base case for the US is compounded annual growth of between 1 percent and 4 percent. Overall, growth in developed countries is projected to rebound to $20 billion to $25 billion from around a negative $3 billion last year (you can access the repo...
Source: Pharmalot - Category: Pharma Commentators Authors: Source Type: blogs