Darapladib Misses Its Endpoint

Well, yesterday Reuters had a preview of GlaxoSmithKline's expected release of Phase III data on their phospholipase A2 inhibitor darapladib: In theory, darapladib could become a $10 billion-a-year seller, industry analysts believe, making it GSK's biggest-ticket pipeline bet. In practice, there are major doubts about its prospects, after mixed evidence to date, and current consensus forecasts point to annual sales of only $605 million in 2018, according to Thomson Reuters Pharma. Barclays analysts see just a 10 percent probability of the drug succeeding, which they say points to a potential 12 percent boost to GSK's valuation if Phase III trial results are positive, with a modest 2 percent downside if it fails. We'll now see how well that last forecast works out, because the Phase III data are out today, and things don't look good. The compound missed its primary endpoint. GSK picked this one up by acquiring Human Genome Sciences, in a move that doesn't seem quite as slick as it might have once. But that's hindsight - there's no way to know if a new cardiovascular drug works without recruiting thousands and thousands of people into a huge Phase III trial, and that's just what GSK did here (16,000 patients!) And there's another 13,000 patient trial still waiting to report. How much money has been spent, we'll never know, but it's a lot. Maybe that alone is reason enough to stay out of that therapeutic area - other companies have come to just that conclusion here and ther...
Source: In the Pipeline - Category: Chemists Tags: Clinical Trials Source Type: blogs