Can a $5 Million per Quarter DTC Ad Campaign Turn Around an 8% to 17% Drop in Provenge Sales?

File this under "When pigs with wings fly." Let's do the math.It has been reported (here) that Dendreon's Provenge sales were off 8% in the second quarter year-over-year and 17% in the first quarter. Let's say the 2013 sales will, on average, be 12% less than the 2012 sales. Last year Provenge sales totaled $321.5 million. Twelve percent of that is about $39 million. According to a MM&M article (here), Dendreon CEO John Johnson remains "optimistic, because of 42 new accounts added in the quarter and because of increased consumer interest since initiation of a television DTC [direct-to-consumer] campaign March 7 for prostate cancer drug Provenge." This campaign is a $5 million-per-quarter "targeted" DTC advertising campaign.If we assume sales lag DTC ad views -- consumers need to see the Provenge ad about seven times before they are ready to dial in to the call center -- then maybe only 2 quarters or $10 million worth of DTC are allocated to make up a $39 shortfall. Which means that these ads (see below) need to realize a return on investment (ROI) of $8 for every $1 spent on advertising. That is where the flying pigs come into the picture.The ROI for DTC advertising is in the range of $1.60 to $2.00 per every dollar invested and some estimates are as high as $4.00 per dollar invested. The best performing brand in an IMS study yielded an ROI of $6.50 per dollar invested (see "Pharma Marketing ROI: The Emperor Has No Clothes!"). View the Provenge TV ad here (embedded below...
Source: Pharma Marketing Blog - Category: Pharma Commentators Tags: ROI Dendreon Provenge DTC Advertising Source Type: blogs