HIV-1 mother-to-child transmission in Brazil (1994–2016): a time series modeling

Publication date: Available online 22 July 2019Source: The Brazilian Journal of Infectious DiseasesAuthor(s): Coelho Antonio Victor Campos, Coelho Hemílio Fernandes Campos, Arraes Luiz Cláudio, Crovella SergioAbstractHIV-1 mother-to-child transmission (HIV-1 MTCT), is an important cause of children mortality worldwide. Brazil has been traditionally praised by its HIV/Aids program, which provides free-of-charge care for people living with HIV-1. Using public epidemiology and demographic databases, we aimed at modeling HIV-1 MTCT prevalence in Brazil through the years (1994–2016) and elaborate a statistical model for forecasting, contributing to HIV-1 epidemiologic surveillance and healthcare decision-making. We downloaded sets of live births and mothers’ data alongside HIV-1 cases notification in children one year old or less. Through time series modeling, we estimated prevalence along the years in Brazil, and observed a remarkable decrease of HIV-1 MTCT between 1994 (10 cases per 100,000 live births) and 2016 (five cases per 100,000 live births), a reduction of 50%. Using our model, we elaborated a prognosis for each Brazilian state to help HIV-1 surveillance decision making, indicating which states are in theory in risk of experiencing a rise in HIV-1 MTCT prevalence. Ten states had good (37%), nine had mild (33%), and eight had poor prognostics (30%). Stratifying the prognostics by Brazilian region, we observed that the Northeast region had more states with poor progn...
Source: The Brazilian Journal of Infectious Diseases - Category: Infectious Diseases Source Type: research