The Long-Term Impact of Functional Disability on Hospitalization Spending in Singapore

Publication date: Available online 27 February 2019Source: The Journal of the Economics of AgeingAuthor(s): C. Chen, J.T. Lim, N.C. Chia, L. Wang, B. Tysinger, J. Zissimopolous, M.Z. Chong, Z. Wang, G.C. Koh, J.M. Yuan, K.B. Tan, K.S. Chia, A.R. Cook, R. Malhotra, A. Chan, S. Ma, T.P. Ng, W.P. Koh, D.P. Goldman, J. YoongAbstractSingapore is one of the fastest-aging populations due to increased life expectancy and lowered fertility. Lifestyle changes increase the burden of chronic diseases and disability. These have important implications for social protection systems. The goal of this paper is to model future functional disability and healthcare expenditures based on current trends.To project the health, disability and hospitalization spending of future elders, we adapted the Future Elderly Model (FEM) to Singapore. The FEM is a dynamic Markov microsimulation model developed in the US. Our main source of population data was the Singapore Chinese Health Study (SCHS) consisting of 63,000 respondents followed up over three waves from 1993 to 2010. The FEM model enables us to investigate the effects of disability compounded over the lifecycle and hospitalization spending, while adjusting for competing risk of multi-comorbidities.Results indicate that by 2050, 1 in 6 elders in Singapore will have at least one ADL disability and 1 in 3 elders will have at least one IADL disability, an increase from 1 in 12 elders and 1 in 5 elders respectively in 2014. The highest prevalence of fun...
Source: The Journal of the Economics of Ageing - Category: Health Management Source Type: research