Monitoring the size and protagonists of the drug market: combining supply and demand data sources and estimates.

Monitoring the size and protagonists of the drug market: combining supply and demand data sources and estimates. Curr Drug Abuse Rev. 2013 Jun;6(2):122-9 Authors: Rossi C Abstract The size of the illicit drug market is an important indicator to assess the impact on society of an important part of the illegal economy and to evaluate drug policy and law enforcement interventions. The extent of illicit drug use and of the drug market can essentially only be estimated by indirect methods based on indirect measures and on data from various sources, as administrative data sets and surveys. The combined use of several methodologies and data sets allows to reduce biases and inaccuracies of estimates obtained on the basis of each of them separately. This approach has been applied to Italian data. The estimation methods applied are capture-recapture methods with latent heterogeneity and multiplier methods. Several data sets have been used, both administrative and survey data sets. First, the retail dealer prevalence has been estimated on the basis of administrative data, then the user prevalence by multiplier methods. Using information about behaviour of dealers and consumers from survey data, the average amount of a substance used or sold and the average unit cost have been estimated and allow estimating the size of the drug market. The estimates have been obtained using a supply-side approach and a demand-side approach and have been compared...
Source: Current Drug Abuse Reviews - Category: Addiction Tags: Curr Drug Abuse Rev Source Type: research