Transmission dynamics of influenza in two major cities of Uganda

Publication date: Available online 19 March 2018Source: EpidemicsAuthor(s): Wan Yang, Matthew J. Cummings, Barnabas Bakamutumaho, John Kayiwa, Nicholas Owor, Barbara Namagambo, Timothy Byaruhanga, Julius J. Lutwama, Max R. O’Donnell, Jeffrey ShamanAbstractIn this paper, we report the epidemic characteristics of the three co-circulating influenza viruses (i.e., A/H1N1, A/H3N2, and B) in two tropical African cities—Kampala and Entebbe, Uganda—over an eight-year period (2008–2015). Using wavelet methods, we show that influenza epidemics recurred annually during the study period. In most months, two or more influenza viruses co-circulated at the same time. However, the epidemic timing differed by influenza (sub)type. Influenza A/H3N2 caused epidemics approximately every 2 years in both cities and tended to alternate with A/H1N1 or B. Influenza A/H1N1 and B produced smaller but more frequent epidemics and biennial epidemics of these two viruses tended to be synchronous. In addition, epidemics of A/H3N2 were more synchronized in the two cities (located ca.37 km apart) than that of A/H1N1 or influenza B.

Source: Epidemics - July 5, 2018 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research