[Articles] Cardiovascular disease risk prediction equations in 400  000 primary care patients in New Zealand: a derivation and validation study

We constructed a large prospective cohort study representing typical patients in primary care in New Zealand who were recommended for cardiovascular disease risk assessment. Most patients are now at low risk of cardiovascular disease, which explains why the PCEs based mainly on old cohorts substantially overestimate risk. Although the PCEs and many other equations will need to be recalibrated to mitigate overtreatment of the healthy majority, they also need new predictors that include measures of socioeconomic deprivation and multiple ethnicities to identify vulnerable high-risk subpopulations that might otherwise be undertreated.

Source: LANCET - May 4, 2018 Category: General Medicine Authors: Romana Pylypchuk, Sue Wells, Andrew Kerr, Katrina Poppe, Tania Riddell, Matire Harwood, Dan Exeter, Suneela Mehta, Corina Grey, Billy P Wu, Patricia Metcalf, Jim Warren, Jeff Harrison, Roger Marshall, Rod Jackson Tags: Articles Source Type: research