Avoiding overstating the strength of forensic evidence: Shrunk likelihood ratios/Bayes factors

When strength of forensic evidence is quantified using sample data and statistical models, a concern may be raised as to whether the output of a model overestimates the strength of evidence. This is particularly the case when the amount of sample data is small, and hence sampling variability is high. This concern is related to concern about precision. This paper describes, explores, and tests three procedures which shrink the value of the likelihood ratio or Bayes factor toward the neutral value of one.
Source: Science and Justice - Category: Forensic Medicine Authors: Source Type: research