On AHCA, CMS Actuary Finds Smaller Coverage Losses, Smaller Spending Reductions Than CBO

On June 13, 2017, the Office of the Chief Actuary of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services released its report on the Estimated Financial Effect of the “American Health Care Act of 2017.” The CMS Office of the Actuary is responsible for evaluating the financial condition of the Medicare program, projecting Medicare and Medicaid expenditures, and predicting the financial effects of proposed health care legislation. Even though the office is located within the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), it is generally regarded as independent and CMS actuaries have provided unwelcome information to administrations of both parties. The June 13 Actuary’s Report addresses different questions than the Congressional Budget Office reports on the AHCA. Where it measures more or less the same thing it offers different numbers. It is likely, therefore, to receive considerable attention. This post examines that report and notes other developments related to the health reform discussion. The headline from the Actuary’s report that is likely to receive the most attention is that the CMS Actuary sees the AHCA as increasing the uninsured by 4 million for 2018/2019 and by 13 million by 2026. By contrast, the CBO estimated that the AHCA would increase the uninsured by 14 million for 2018 and 23 million by 2026. The Actuary also, however, projects far smaller reductions in federal health care spending from the AHCA than did the CBO—a total of $328 billion over ten years, i...
Source: Health Affairs Blog - Category: Health Management Authors: Tags: Costs and Spending Following the ACA Insurance and Coverage bare counties ACA Marketplaces health care networks Medicaid expansion risk corridors Star ratings Source Type: blogs