Can review become more discriminating?

Several recent commentaries (Danthi, Wu, Shi and Lauer; Lauer, Danthi, Kaltman, and Wu;) have found that the percentile rank an application receives in peer review has little or no noticeable relationship to how productive (in terms of citation impact of publications) a subsequent award is, should the application be so fortunate as to be awarded. So, a first-percentile application is apparently no more productive than a 15th-percentile application. Is that outcome really surprising?

Source: Inside NIA: A Blog for Researchers - March 23, 2016 Category: Geriatrics Authors: Robin Barr, Director of the Division of Extramural Activities Source Type: blogs