Estimating the Expected Value of Sample Information Using the Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis Sample: A Fast, Nonparametric Regression-Based Method

We describe a fast nonparametric regression-based method for estimating per-patient EVSI that requires only the probabilistic sensitivity analysis sample (i.e., the set of samples drawn from the joint distribution of the parameters and the corresponding net benefits). The method avoids the need to sample from the posterior distributions of the parameters and avoids the need to rerun the model. The only requirement is that sample data sets can be generated. The method is applicable with a model of any complexity and with any specification of model parameter distribution. We demonstrate in a case study the superior efficiency of the regression method over the 2-level Monte Carlo method.

Source: Medical Decision Making - June 16, 2015 Category: Health Management Authors: Strong, M., Oakley, J. E., Brennan, A., Breeze, P. Tags: Original Articles Source Type: research